"World marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 44 percent between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in the developing nations of the world."
Economic recovery that is expected to begin within the next 12/24 months is the main responsible for this trend.
US-IEA also predicts higher world oil prices that will continue to raise in the short term until at least 2030. The good news about increasing oil prices is that other alternatives which can be environmentally friendly become more attractive together with research and development of alternatives to oil.
So, it is not a surprise when the report states that
"unconventional alternatives (including biofuels, oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) are expected to become increasingly competitive in the reference case [increasing oil prices]."
Renewable energy is also expected to grow until 2030 by an average of 2.9% per year, with electricity production representing 21% in 2030 (it represented 19% in 2006). Wind and hydropower will be major players in this increase.
This figure shows world electricity generation by fuel:
This figure shows the share of renewables in electricity generation:
An increase in energy consumption in a world where fossil fuels still have the higher share will have several environmental impacts. One that is of most concern in the times we live in is climate change. The following figure shows greenhouse gas emissions projections.
The increase is mainly due to non-OECD countries that have been increasing while economic growing.
For more information, please go to:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/05/ieo2009-20090527.html#more
The US-IEA Energy Outlook report 2009 is available here:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484(2009).pdf
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